Last month, the Toronto Real Estate Board posted the above video to their YouTube channel. In the video, Senior Manager of Market Analysis, Jason Mercer, takes a look back at the 2011 real estate market and a look forward to what we can expect in 2012. Warning: the video is over 25 minutes long! Not to worry - I sat through the entire thing myself and have summarized the main points below (you're welcome).
1. Where We Are At
- We've seen of approximately 8-10% of price growth over the course of the year.
- Inventory has been tight, resulting in a Seller's Market.
- Record-low interest rates have fuelled a very active market.
2. Interest Rates
- Rates are likely to remain somewhat flat in 2012.
- This is a reaction to what's happening, economically, south of the border and in Europe.
3. Jobs And Income Growth
- The unemployment rate has been moving lower, but this trend is flattening.
- A 2% growth in income is expected in 2012, roughly in line with inflation expectations.
- The average Toronto household income will increase from approx $102,000 in 2011 to approx $104,000 in 2011.
4. Resale Market Outlook
- An increase in the number of sales, from 90,000 in 2011 to 92,000 in 2012.
- This increase in the number of sales is in line with the long-term trend for population growth.
- The number of new listings should rise from 145-150,000 in 2011 to 160-165,000 in 2012.
- More sellers will decide to list their homes in reaction to the strong price growth seen in 2011.
- More listings = more choice for buyers = slower price growth than what we saw in 2011.
- An increase in the average price from $460,00 in 2011 to $485,000 in 2012.
- This amounts to approx 4.5% price growth, year-over-year.
- Moderate price growth will keep affordability in check.
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